Kurzweil’s future world

Ray Kurzweil’s 2005 book, The Singularity is Near, describes an era (termed the Singularity) where our intelligence will become increasingly non-biological and trillions of times more powerful than it is today. This new age, according to Kurzweil will usher in the dawning of a new civilization that will be marked by our ability to transcend biological limitations, as well as amplify our creative abilities. It is Kurzweil’s strong conviction that humanity stands on the verge of the most transforming and the exciting period in its history, where the very nature of what it means to be human will change. Kurzweil offers a compelling argument that the ever-accelerating rate of technological change as described by Moore’s Law, will inevitably lead to computers that will rival human intelligence at every level. Kurzweil goes on to propose that the next logical step in our inexorable evolutionary process will be the union of human and machine. This union, which he ultimately terms Human (version) 2.0, will allow the knowledge and skills embedded in our brains to be combined with human-created systems (hardware and wet-wear) imbuing us with vastly greater capacity, speed, and knowledge-sharing ability. This breaking of our genetic limitations will enable almost unimaginable achievements, including inconceivable increases of intelligence, material progress, and longevity; but this transition will not be without its challenges, and opponents, as well as champions. In this new era, there will be no clear distinction between human and machine. The distinction between real and virtual reality will be blurred. According to Kurzweil, we will be able to assume different bodies and take on a range of personae at will.

In Kurzweil’s world, nanotechnology will make it possible to create virtually any physical product using inexpensive information processes – ultimately rendering even death into a solvable problem. In other words, aging and illness will be reversible. Nanotechnology will make it possible to stop pollution, solve world hunger and poverty.
While The Singularity Is Near maintains a radically optimistic view of the future, Kurzweil acknowledges that the social and philosophical ramifications of these changes will be profound. Kurzweils does outline what he feels are some of the outstanding threats these technologies pose. One of the most striking of these threats was the dangers posed by nanotechnology-based processes that run amok, whether by accident, incompetence, or design; i.e. terrorism. Picture a world where our nanotechnology-based creations attack the biosphere or where self-replicating nanobots reproduce out of control, like bacteria run amok. Numerous other Michael Crichton like scenarios explored.

Ultimately, Kurzweil offers a view of the coming age that is captivating to some and positively frightening to others. To Kurzweil, this coming age is simply the culmination of our species century’s old quest for environmental, physical and spiritual improvement, and the technological ingenuity this pursuit generates.
Do I share Kurzweil’s vision? I believe that his timeline, like many futurists, is overly optimistic. He strongly believes that we are at the “elbow” of the geometric growth of our innovation/technology, and that we, as a species are about to witness an explosion of knowledge and technology never before witnessed before in human history, as we “turn beyond this elbow” in the knowledge/technology growth graph. History seems to indicate that growth at the micro-view (i.e. timeline) is segmented or digital – not continuous or analog, as it appears that way at the macro-view; i.e. the proverbial 10,000 foot level. (Where’s my flying car?) Growth is in spurts that is heavily influenced by environmental factors, including availability of resources (time, money, etc.), need and/or desire (read this as social/economic/political will), and a number of other agents. Further, our technological advances are coming at increasing cost – both direct and indirect – this includes development, manufacturing and deployment costs. With the possible exception of small-time gadgets and software, I would argue that most innovation is incremental, synergistic, and expensive – with multiple groups working on commonly identified, potentially profitable ventures, in a race to capture a (near) future market. The bottom-line, in my humble opinion, Kurzweil’s world is not 25-50 years off, but 100. I will admit that his vision is seductive on many levels.